Much as we admire Nigel Farage’s consistency in supporting his cause, his present political positioning is just madness.
Clearly, he could never have thought that Boris would tear up his deal just because it is not No Deal – which seems to be Farage’s target, So what does Nigel want? Most Brexiteers can live with Boris’ deal – and many remainers can live with the withdrawal, as it least it isn’t a crash, and it moves the topic on. The Brexit Party have no chance of power, and in many close marginals, they risk drawing just enough voters away from the Tories to gift the seat to Labour or the Liberals.
Just as in Peterborough and Brecon by-elections, they could well split the leave vote, and let one of the other parties to win, with many fewer than half of the votes cast. Does Nigel really want to be the man who let Jeremy Corbyn into Number 10? We think not. So the only conclusion is that he thinks there may be a peerage in it for him if he backs down. There can be no other logical motivation for Mr Farage to take such an extreme position.
The Brexit Party will withdraw from all seats except those where the Tories have no chance anyway – ie Northern Labour-held seats. Nigel will magnanimously agree to back Boris’s deal as being better than any of the plausible alternatives. In due time, Mr Farage will enter the House of Lords.
Even before the vote counting has started, it seems clear that by tomorrow the Brexit Party will have their first MP. Their candidate, Mike Greene, has run a slick campaign in a leave-town. The Tories seem to have lost more support than Labour, and may well be beaten into fourth place by the Lib-Dems.
What does this mean?
The Blues will yet again be reminded of the danger of Farage’s Flying Circus. More power to Boris Johnson’s leadership challenge and his promise of “October Means October” (though, oddly, he is not using that phrase!) The Conservative Party must be seen to deliver Brexit on time and Boris is positioned perfectly for this predictable development. Who said he is a buffoon??
You will remember when Parliament voted to prevent No-Deal on 3rd April. It was the only thing they seem to have agreed on all year. Yet it was passed by one vote. As the Metro breathlessly reported, it was the then Peterborough MP, newly released from prison with a curfew tag, that swung the numbers. Anger at jailbird MP who ‘stopped Brexit’ in Bill that was won by one vote
It is fair to assume that the new Brexit-Party Peterborough MP is unlikely to vote against No Deal in any repeat of this motion. Suddenly the mathematics are reversed. Instead of passing by one vote, any new Yvette Cooper bill would fail by one vote. Parliament will not stop No-Deal a second time.
Funny how a by-election in a sleepy backwater could have such a large impact on our national destiny.
We see Boris as PM by 22 July. He needs Brexit on time, Deal or No Deal. The EU has little negotiating capacity and even less desire to rewrite the Withdrawal Agreement in such a short timeframe. Parliament cannot stop No deal. Boris cannot afford to blink and request a delay.
Oh those happy, naïve, days back in January, where we were asking How Long Can The Brexit Fun Last? We thought 3 or 4 weeks would be the most we could stretch it out. And now, 4 months later, we foresee another 18 months of this disaster. Was there ever a slower car-crash?????
Mrs May’s deal is dead in the water. It is more Zombie’d than a Zombie-thing. Even though there is less than the thickness of a fag-paper (which is approx 2 thou’) between the reds and blues, they cannot agree a deal.
And even if they do agree a deal, it won’t get through Parliament – either it has a customs union, which will lose more Tory support than it gains from Labour, or it doesn’t have a customs deal – in which case Labour won’t back it.
Both lots will receive an even larger drubbing in the European Elections on 23 May than they suffered in the local council elections
So there can be no general election – all those turkeys in Parliament still won’t vote for Christmas. But Mrs May will finally have to admit defeat!
So the only solution is a new Tory leader. On the over-riding need to win the next election, it will be BoJo or Liz Truss………….
………..who will then inform Messrs. Barnier, Juncker and Tusk that they negotiated too tough a deal, and that it will never pass Parliament.
Hence the EU must choose – another 12 months to negotiate a deal that is fair to UK, or No-Deal on 31 October.
The EU will huff and puff, but back down. It doesn’t want to be blamed for No-Deal
You heard it here first;-
The End of May by the End of May
Brexit Delayed until 31 October 2020
Now can we all get on with our lives? Er, no. We have all the drama of the Euro Elections, the Peterborough By-election, a Tory leadership election, and Brexit Delay. The fun clearly has months to run!
PS. Did you like the Quant-joke in the headline?
[The End of May]2 = [The End of May] * [The End of May] = The End of May BY The End of May