Cripes, doesn’t Boris love poking the hornets’ nest with a sharp stick?
The reality of his decision to close this Parliamentary session and arrange a Queen’s Speech to initiate a new Parliament is relatively small. Instead of Parliament having a recess for three and a half weeks over the party conference season, the break is five weeks. However, it has acted as a lightning rod for all of the pent up frustration and anger of the Remainers. Suddenly, they can see their case is lost. It was lost before, but now they can no longer pretend to themselves that they still have a chance.
The greatest endorsement came from Guy Verhofstadt, Chief EU Brexit Negotiator, who branded it a ‘sinister development’. Clearly, many in Brussels have been relying on the Remainers to weaken the UK position. The strength of Boris’s move is reflected in their dislike of it.
The Nuclear Option
So now the Remainers have only one option left – win a vote of No Confidence next week and force an election before the end of October. This would be welcomed by the Boris team, as discussed yesterday, who have developed a suite of policies on which to campaign, and have clearly judged that such a poll would be winnable.
Our view is that;-
The Remainers will not be able to win a vote of No Confidence
It is far from clear that Mr Corbyn will even dare to call one (see 1. above)
The EU will have to sit up and realise that the Remainers will not postpone Brexit
The EU needs to avoid blame for No-Deal, and so see a deal as necessary.
Suddenly, to us, a No-Deal Brexit seems less likely than it did 24 hours ago.