Boris’ Historic Election – Thank You EU

Congratulations to Boris! Now perhaps we can go back to having too much food, too much drink and too much indulgence over the Christmas break, without having politics upsetting us all?

Johnson this morning – photo from BBC

This huge victory will set the direction of politics for the next 10 years. Yes, we predict another term for BoJo starting in 2024. I am indebted to my older contact who has already pointed out that by December 2024, Labour will have only had one election-winning leader in 50 years. FIFTY YEARS!!! Step forward Tony Blair. You achieved the success that eluded Jim Callaghan, Michael Foot, Neil Kinnock, Gordon Brown, Ed Milliband and now Jeremy Corbyn. Oh, and John Smith too…… Did I miss any?

Jim Callaghan – never won
Michael Foot – never won
John Smith – never won (though to be fair he never tried)
Neil Kinnock – never won
Gordon Brown – never won
Ed Milliband – never won
Mr Corbyn – he didn’t win either (twice)
Tony Blair – the only one to win in 50 years – and yet they hate him!

And to what can we allocate this massive swing in the vote for the Tory Party? Why, the EU!! What a change for the European project to be assisting the blues! It was the disdainful response of Frau Merkel to David Cameron’s pleas for moderating change that set the ball rolling towards a leave vote. This was compounded by the EU inaction during the referendum campaign. Where were Messrs Junckers and Tusk during the lead up to the vote? They were not in UK sharing the vision and love were they? Their next mistake was to play hardball too much with Mrs May, forcing her on to the defensive at home. One has to surmise that they thought a Remainer-Parliament was their best hope of keeping the UK on board. But they overplayed their hand, sending Theresa back with too much of a surrender bill. This off-hand treatment was compounded by the humiliation and shunning that Mrs May received from the other EU leaders at Salzburg. So the scene was set for Parliament to respond to the lack of co-operation… which led to Boris becoming leader…. which led to the election. One has to hope that they will work with Boris as an equal!

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Two Hours in Strasbourg Resolves Brexit! (Not)

Forget about Relate, ACAS or all of the thousands of arbitrators and facilitators. Has your divorce, or workplace negotiation, boundary dispute or EU Withdrawal Agreement gotten nowhere in the last two and a half years? Clearly what you need is an evening in Strasbourg.

Pretty Strasbourg
Theresa of London
Jean-Claude of Brussels

Theresa of London had been travelling to Brussels to resolve an awkward tiff with her estranged partner Jean-Claude. Despite months of trying, she had achieved nothing but a trying time. Bringing in her lawyer Geoffrey and her “fixer” Oli had made matters worse. But two hours with Jean-Claude in the magical surroundings of Strasbourg has made all the difference.

 

Back to reality!

Sadly, in the cold light of day, what seemed like a wonderful way forward in the French moonlight now feels like a mistake. Will Theresa ever learn not to give so much away without more commitment? First it was her £39bln exchanged for nothing more than a vague promise of goodwill. Now she has bet everything on a “legally-binding” complementary document.

European Parliament Building in Strasbourg

Will she regret giving her trust by tonight? Sadly, once this morning’s euphoria wears off, we feel Theresa won’t make it across the line this evening. We know and love the phrase “It’s a long shot but it might just work”. But those advocating gambling on long-odds horses should ship out to Cheltenham for the Festival. By definition, the chances are that you will lose! It was a sterling effort by Mrs May, and like nearly all the real people in this country, we just want it over. Will the DUP change their minds – and will Bill Cash and his star-chamber of lawyers change their minds? We can’t quite see it.

Cheltenham Festival starts today
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