Corbyn for PM – The Ultimate Silly Season Story

Corbyn the great statesman

Hahahahahahahhahahahahha. Hats off to whoever thought of proposing Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister. Perhaps the most fundamental question about having the Labour leader in charge of a “Government of National Unity” to solve the Brexit dilemma is, does anybody know what Mr Corbyn’s ideal Brexit would look like? So far the only clear Labour policy has been to oppose whatever Mrs May tried to get through Parliament. That was opportunistic politics, not conviction-based positioning. It is widely believed that Jeremy himself is in favour of Brexit, but it appears from the sketchy plans seen so far that the National Unity Government would actually be a Parliamentary Unity Government whose sole purpose was to delay Brexit and call a General Election. It is tough to see how frustrating again the 52% of leavers would lead to any unity within the country.

There cannot be many Tory MPs who want an election: and there must be even fewer who would want to face even their constituency party, let alone the electorate, after putting a Marxist in No 10. Then there is the difficult issue of Scottish Nationalism. Would Corbyn and Co be prepared to sanction another Scottish referendum as the price of SNP support? That would make the £1bn bung to Northern Ireland to buy DUP support look rather cheap. Even with the SNP, there is zero chance of Mr Corbyn building a parliamentary majority. Even some of his own MPs wouldn’t back him.

What is most revealing about this whole farrago is that St Jeremy bought into the idea hook, line and sinker. He truly believed it could work. Like a first year schoolboy persuaded by the sixth form to stand for Head Boy, he seemed to genuinely hope that it could happen. Oh yes, come to think of it, that’s how he became Labour leader – the outsider added to the ballot paper for a laugh.

 

Silly Season Story No.2 – Ken Clarke for PM

Ken Clarke after 49 years in Parliament

Come on Ken, surely you must have seen that one coming through the cigar smoke? At least you had the nous to claim no involvement until the fuss died down. Thus you saved some of your dignity.

 

Silly Season Story No. 3 – Donald Trump Wants to Buy a Country

Leader of the Free World

Well it would be the real-estate deal of the century – and you know what, he could still pull it off. Going public may well be a tactic to soften up the Danish people into selling off an asset they cannot exploit to someone who can!

Hey….. wait a minute. If Donald J wants to buy a rugged, freezing, mountainous country with too much snow and ice…… well we know he loves Scotland! Call Boris, I’ve got an idea!!

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Brave Bold Boris Boosts Britain

Boris’s First Cabinet. (Photo by Aaron Chown – WPA Pool/Getty Images)

What a great start he has made! Mr Johnson has his critics, not to mention his complex private life. But the change of mood since Wednesday has been palpable. It feels like a spring back from the doom, gloom and managed decline of the 1970’s (Mrs May’s dour attitude) to the sunlit uplands of Tony Blair’s Cool Britannia in the 1990’s. For an in-depth review of the new cabinet, we recommend the Politico website.

 

This is what we see Boris as having done well;-

  1. A wholesale new government, with everyone pulling in the same direction. This is quite a change from the try-to-appease everyone approach of the May administration.

  2. Stamping his authority on the cabinet from Day 1 by standing up to Jeremy Hunt

  3. Putting Michael Gove in charge of No Deal preparations and funding him properly. This is a sign to all that the new Government will take No Deal if a better alternative is not forthcoming.

  4. Surrounding himself by a team of advisers who are known to mean business.

  5. Announcing a raft of other policy initiatives – for example putting money into extra police, focussing on the Northern Powerhouse, and spending on defence. Suddenly, it looks like the Tories have spending plans based on conviction rather than just trying to react to Mr Corbyn’s ideas. This is signalling also that if a General Election comes, the Conservatives have a manifesto in waiting.

  6. Keeping Carrie out of the limelight to avoid distracting headlines.

  7. A bravado performance in Parliament, answering questions assuredly for more than two hours. Boris seemed positive, competent and inspiring. We can only imagine his political opponents were downcast, and several of his doubters in the Conservatives were starting to be won over. Nothing improves one’s political fortunes as much as appearing to be a winner!

  8. Making telephone calls to other World Leaders, but travelling first around the UK to ensure his interest in the provinces can be seen.

We agree with the Team Boris analysis that there can only be one of three outcomes over the next 4 months;

  1. No Deal Brexit

  2. The EU blinks and negotiates

  3. A general election.

Opening deep talks with the US at this stage shows a much more determined approach to negotiating with EU. Brussels clearly has disdain for the choice of the British people, but they will not want the UK moving from the EU’s orbit into that of the Americans. So playing off the two powers against each other is a very smart move. Suddenly, No Deal has a geo-political angle rather than just being a punishment for UK.

Summary

Boris has had a great start and now has the political momentum (with a small M!!). He could well prove unstoppable by the time Parliament reconvenes in September if he keeps this going over the summer.

Unlike most of the media, we see Boris’s start as making No Deal less probable, because his strength will more-likely make the EU re-open talks.

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Fight For The Brexit Poison Chalice Begins!

Ten optimistic hopefuls have thrown their hats into the ring (a phrase which originates in boxing) to be the next PM. Over the next two weeks we will see eight of them throw in the towel (another phrase that comes from boxing).

It is kind of appropriate that we are talking about pugilism, as the winner looks certain to take a beating! How power-crazed they must be to offer themselves up for such a Poison Chalice: a long-odds challenge of pulling off a good Brexit and reinventing a directionless country.

It is becoming clear that the EU will not blink in its stubbornness over the Withdrawal Agreement, figuring that Parliament will do the dirty work in preventing a No Deal Brexit. We are not so sure, as the arithmetic is pretty close.

It has even been stated (elsewhere, in perhaps more hysterical journals) that a General Election is certain, as whichever faction in the Commons doesn’t get it’s way will support a No Confidence Vote and bring down the Government. As we have been saying since January, there are plenty of turkeys in the Conservative Party, but they will not vote for Christmas.

It is interesting that only Matt Hancock and Jeremy Hunt are suggesting that they can magically negotiate a better deal than Mrs May by being nicer to EU. The other candidates are all pitching that they will threaten No Deal, and be prepared to go through with it if the EU is that obdurate.

So we need to separate them on other policies. Boris has gone for high-earners’ taxes. Raab has gone for standard rate and business tax cuts. Gove has some kind of sales tax idea.

Mr Raab – had a faab launch

Our view (this week – well actually this day, it could be different tomorrow) is that Gove will not make it on to the paper as he is seen as awesomely clever but with suspect integrity. His low punches at Boris yesterday – about “pulling out” – did him no favours. Hunt has a great business background but looks too much like continuity May. Mr Raab has so far produced the best policy ideas for a Tory Party facing its Waterloo at the next election. Boris gets in more due to his charisma than any policy wins.

Yet it is not a done-deal. It is not a slam-dunk for Boris even if he gets on to the ticket. He needs proper policy meat, and he needs it soon.

The other challengers need to propose such wonderful, right-wing, election-winning policies that they depose Raab from the No.2 place on the ticket.

It is all to play for.

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