Covid-19 Lockdown to be Extended and Tightened

Covid-19 sounds lke one of those really technical names scientists develop, having understood the gene type and infection mechanism, doesn’t it?

The sad truth is that it is just a shortening of Corona Virus Disease 2019. How disappointing!! That could have been made up by an arts graduate, not some eminent senior professor!

So far, the Government has handled this outbreak with a shrewd political approach, gradually tightening up things as the public acceptance grew. As the numbers of infections and deaths increased, the official response increased from ‘wash your hands’ to ‘social distancing’. Next, it was ‘closure of pubs and clubs’, until finally we reached ‘lockdown’. This step-by-step tightening meant that the public understood the ever-worsening situation required stronger reactions. However, it was entirely politically driven. The scientific need for a much earlier lockdown was clear for all to see.

History will not be kind to Boris and his team.

It was obvious from China and Italy that containment as soon as possible would reduce the death toll by thousands. Bold decision making was necessary. However, the Government’s dithering almost made Mrs May look decisive and authoritarian. I said ALMOST.

Many many thousands of British deaths could have been avoided and sadly were not. They will happen as a direct result of slow and incorrect decision making. It can only be a matter of time before the population starts to get angry. This will be Boris’s legacy – which is a shame for a likable chap so early into his premiership.

As an aside, we wish BoJo a speedy recovery, and hope he is self-isolating from Carrie, what with her, er, having a bun in the oven.

What now then?

It is clear that the three week lockdown was another of the Tories’ attempts at not scaring the British people. The reality is that from infection to symptoms to hospital to intensive care to death is a 3 or 4 week process. And so at the end of the three week lockdown, the numbers of infections will not be accelerating as quickly, but they will continue at a sickening pace, as the infections before the lockdown was imposed reach their grizzly conclusion. By the three week date of 13 April (Easter Monday), we are likely to be seeing 1000 deaths per day. This is not the background for a relaxation of the curbs. Quite the opposite. Despite the British public’s unwillingness to be bossed around too much, we see tighter controls and a much longer timeframe for the lockdown.

Total Deaths in Italy, from worldometers.info

The sad sad chart above lists the total number of deaths in Italy. Even after three weeks of a proper lockdown, the numbers continue to climb at close to 1000 people per day. This is where we will be in 2 weeks.

Yesterday, 181 people died from Covid-19 in UK. That is the equivalent of an Airbus A320 going down. And yet the numbers didn’t make it into the first 5 minutes of news bulletins. When we reach 1000 people dying per day, that will be like 2 Boeing 747’s crashing in the UK every 24 hours! It is hard to overstate how serious this all looks.

The number of infections per case needs to be reduced from 2.5 each to less than one new case for each live infection. Otherwise, the dreadful growth goes on.

The restrictions will be substantially extended, and will be considerably tightened.

This Recession Will Be Huge

Economists like to talk about recessions being V shaped, U shaped or L shaped – based on the graph line depicting the fall and speed of the possible recovery. This recession is going to be pear-shaped!

If you haven’t read the Imperial College Covid-19 Report, I suggest you do so right now. Okay, have you looked at it? The numbers are pretty startling….. 500,000 deaths in UK if we had done nothing, 260,000 deaths on last week’s strategy. So the Government had no choice but to initiate the latest controls, and thankfully Boris was sensible enough to see that.

Scary Imperial College Covid Image

Under the new approach, critical care numbers may be kept within the capacity of the NHS intensive care system. Deaths will be less than 100,000, and may be as low as 20,000.

However, the worrying part of the report was what happens when the controls are relaxed. Under the mitigation approach of last week, the infections shoot back up to the extent that the epidemic has just been delayed.

Under the latest scenario, we have, say, 3 months of lockdown, then normality is resumed for a month. At this point, infections will start to rise again. So after a further month, we go back into lockdown. This made for simplified modelling. What is more likely is that after 2 or 3 months of low infection rates, people become complacent, contacts rise and infections grow again… then there will be a reinforcement of measures. But remember, the models contain lots of assumptions, and could be rather inaccurate. This is not a condemnation of the scientists, just a reflection of an uncertain data they are using.

Ultimately, this is an open-ended procedure. At some point a vaccine will be developed. But it won’t be less than 18 months away. It could be 3 years of close to house-arrest for the whole population.

We have already seen demand for durable goods fall away and car companies suspending production. We will see bankruptcies of manufacturing and service companies, no matter how much Government support is given. The current £350 billion is way too little. And isn’t it a frightening echo of the Boris Brexit Bus with its £350 million? What is it about £350???

Boris’ Brexit Bus – and another £350 sum. What a spooky coincidence

Even public sector employees, isolated from the worst of the economic-epidemic will save rather than spend. The general public, as is usual in times of trouble, will save or pay down debt. The collapse in retail spending will be truly eye-watering. We may never return to our previous societal norms. Another article will comment on forever-changed political structures. Workers may end up in small, closed communities for their own protection.

Apologies for the lack of jokes and puns in this article. It just is not a funny topic.

Brace yourself folks. This is going to be a humdinger of a recession.

Coronavirus Party Required for Granny

We recommend that you should do your utmost to get your Granny infected now!

Old People Partying

The UK Government’s strategy for coronavirus is to resignedly accept that around 80% of people here will catch it. We know that approximately 1% of those infected will die from the disease. This is an awful, terrible number of people.

However, it has been decided that instead of trying to prevent people from becoming infected, the answer is to delay the spread of infection so that the peak is later and more spread out. In this way, the NHS will have more time to prepare for the rise in demand, and the maximum number of intensive care beds needed will be lower, albeit for a longer period.

Looking at the statistics, most people will be infected, and the bulk of those infections will happen over the summer, when the NHS is fully stretched – and then some – trying to cope with the numbers. The last thing you should be doing is to risk catching it at the same time as everyone else.

So the answer is to get the vulnerable infected now, whilst plenty of spaces are available in intensive care. Why wait until the ICU’s are full to bursting and you might be receiving treatment in a corridor? Get in early.

Coronavirus Parties

Did your Mum take you to a chicken-pox party when you were a child, inflicting an unpleasant, itchy disease on you “for your own good”? Well now is your chance for payback. Ship her out of that old-folks’ home and get her into pubs, clubs, football matches, even the Houses of Parliament. This way, she will be infected and treated before the rush!

You read it here first – now get out there and infect the old and vulnerable people in your life!