Covid-19 Lockdown to be Extended and Tightened

Covid-19 sounds lke one of those really technical names scientists develop, having understood the gene type and infection mechanism, doesn’t it?

The sad truth is that it is just a shortening of Corona Virus Disease 2019. How disappointing!! That could have been made up by an arts graduate, not some eminent senior professor!

So far, the Government has handled this outbreak with a shrewd political approach, gradually tightening up things as the public acceptance grew. As the numbers of infections and deaths increased, the official response increased from ‘wash your hands’ to ‘social distancing’. Next, it was ‘closure of pubs and clubs’, until finally we reached ‘lockdown’. This step-by-step tightening meant that the public understood the ever-worsening situation required stronger reactions. However, it was entirely politically driven. The scientific need for a much earlier lockdown was clear for all to see.

History will not be kind to Boris and his team.

It was obvious from China and Italy that containment as soon as possible would reduce the death toll by thousands. Bold decision making was necessary. However, the Government’s dithering almost made Mrs May look decisive and authoritarian. I said ALMOST.

Many many thousands of British deaths could have been avoided and sadly were not. They will happen as a direct result of slow and incorrect decision making. It can only be a matter of time before the population starts to get angry. This will be Boris’s legacy – which is a shame for a likable chap so early into his premiership.

As an aside, we wish BoJo a speedy recovery, and hope he is self-isolating from Carrie, what with her, er, having a bun in the oven.

What now then?

It is clear that the three week lockdown was another of the Tories’ attempts at not scaring the British people. The reality is that from infection to symptoms to hospital to intensive care to death is a 3 or 4 week process. And so at the end of the three week lockdown, the numbers of infections will not be accelerating as quickly, but they will continue at a sickening pace, as the infections before the lockdown was imposed reach their grizzly conclusion. By the three week date of 13 April (Easter Monday), we are likely to be seeing 1000 deaths per day. This is not the background for a relaxation of the curbs. Quite the opposite. Despite the British public’s unwillingness to be bossed around too much, we see tighter controls and a much longer timeframe for the lockdown.

Total Deaths in Italy, from worldometers.info

The sad sad chart above lists the total number of deaths in Italy. Even after three weeks of a proper lockdown, the numbers continue to climb at close to 1000 people per day. This is where we will be in 2 weeks.

Yesterday, 181 people died from Covid-19 in UK. That is the equivalent of an Airbus A320 going down. And yet the numbers didn’t make it into the first 5 minutes of news bulletins. When we reach 1000 people dying per day, that will be like 2 Boeing 747’s crashing in the UK every 24 hours! It is hard to overstate how serious this all looks.

The number of infections per case needs to be reduced from 2.5 each to less than one new case for each live infection. Otherwise, the dreadful growth goes on.

The restrictions will be substantially extended, and will be considerably tightened.

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